Indianapolis is likely being downgraded because Gardner Minshew will be facing the heavily lauded Cleveland defense, which has had a good run of matchups on that side of the ball, including an injured Joe Burrow, the Steelers, the Titans, and Brock Purdy dealing with a driving wind.
It also shouldn't be flipped back so aggressively with the likelihood Watson will play versus the Colts. Walker replaced Deshaun Watson before the 49ers game. The Browns' win probability shouldn't have been adjusted down drastically when P.J. Had those two high-leverage plays gone differently, the Bucs might not be so mad about their play and might not be so focused on a visit from Ridder this week. The Buccaneers were closer to the Lions than the scoreboard suggests, as a batted Baker Mayfield pass prevented a potential long touchdown for Mike Evans, and Jameson Williams held on to a juggled long touchdown on a third-and-10. His yardage per attempt is 1.7 yards lower on the road than it is at home, and he completes almost 10% fewer passes. Bettors may like the production enough to keep this line from going to -3, but they have more faith than I do that Ridder's road statistics will turn around this week. Desmond Ridder had over 300 yards last week, and the Falcons' backers were bummed out about the performance because of the crucial turnovers that cost Atlanta the game.
